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Scotland's Independence Movement at a Crossroads After Latest Polls
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Scotland's Independence Movement at a Crossroads After Latest Polls

Support for independence falls below 45% for the first time in four years as economic concerns dominate debate.

EM

Ewan MacPherson

Scotland Correspondent

Published 25 April 2026·6 months ago 5 min read
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Support for Scottish independence has dipped below 45% in the latest series of polls, marking the first sustained decline in pro-independence sentiment since the SNP won its second consecutive Holyrood majority in 2021.

Analysts attribute the shift to growing public anxiety about the economic case for independence, particularly around currency, pension security and the practicalities of border arrangements with the rest of the UK.

The SNP leadership has acknowledged the poll trend but insisted that a second referendum remains both achievable and necessary. Opposition parties at Holyrood argued that the figures show Scots have moved on from the constitutional question and want focus on health, education and cost of living.

Topicsscotlandindependencesnppoliticsregional
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About the Author

EM

Ewan MacPherson

Scotland Correspondent

Ewan MacPherson reports for National Post UK with a focus on rigorous analysis and authoritative journalism — a trusted voice across British public life.

Reader Discussion · 4

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M
Margaret Jones27 Apr

While I respect differing opinions, I wonder if this decline reflects a temporary hesitation rather than a permanent shift. People are anxious about the economy, which is certainly valid, but we should be cautious not to let fear dictate our choices.

J
John Sinclair27 Apr

As someone who has always supported Scottish independence, it worries me that people seem to have lost faith. We need to campaign harder to inform the public on how independence could provide a better economic future for Scotland.

E
Elaine Thompson27 Apr

I believe this dip in support is simply a reflection of the times. Economic challenges are looming, and while independence could bring its own risks, we mustn't forget the potential benefits of self-governance in tackling these issues.

D
David McGregor27 Apr

It's disheartening to see support for independence falling below 45%. I think many people were swayed by the economic uncertainties and are understandably wary of what it could mean for our future.

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